A Reddit user recently posted about the mass text that was sent out to Hawaiians about a missile heading to the island. The post is titled “A couple of possibilities for what REALLY went down in Hawaii yesterday.”
The person claims that he used to work on 4 specific Minutemen ICBMs for a “high profile company.” The user noted that he can’t share too many details for obvious reasons, but they believe that an “accident” of an employee accidentally pressing the mass alert button is extremely unlikely. He presented a few theories which he finds to be more likely.
Theory number one bears the emboldened text: (1) “the threat was real, the missile was shot down.” It speculates that the amount of time it takes an ICBM to fly from Southeast Asia to Hawaii is about 20-30 minutes ( ~10 min to hit ICBM max speed of 7 km/s, ~7200 km, (7200/7)/(60) = ~17 min for total travel time of ~27 min, not accounting for earth’s rotation in that time period).
The person claims the amount of time it must have took for the false alarm to be sent out was 38 minutes. He (assuming the poster is a male) continues the US’ ABM system works by essentially launching a “giant chunk of metal” at the ICBM to hit it hard. The ABMs have no ordinance, they simply destroy the incoming missile with impact.
However, although the US has the best ABM system in the world, protocol still requires a message of warning to be sent out, because the defense is only accurate about 50% of the time.
The post explains:
“I think it’s at least feasible that the threat was real, and the threat was dealt with successfully (and thankfully). The question that tears this theory apart is: why would the US not tell us they shot down an enemy ICBM? The most likely answer I can come up with is that Trump doesn’t want war. Maybe he just talks a big game. Or perhaps it’s not financially beneficial to start a war when there were no causalities. Whatever it is, it’s not that we don’t know who launched the missile. When those things take off we pretty much immediately know where it’s going and where it came from. So if there was a real threat, the US Gov is for whatever reason not sharing this information with the public. Maybe they don’t want to cause panic. I don’t know. “
His second theory is (2)“The EAS was hacked to provoke reaction from Trump.”
This contents that the EAS has been hacked before, so it is possible that it was hacked again. ICBMS function on something called Mutually Assured Destruction: so if a nation like Russia launches their full force of ICBMs at the United States, they have a half an hour to retaliate. A situation would of course arise in which both nations lose and billions die. Using them against a country with them is basically suicide.
The post continued:
“If we had launched missiles towards Southeast Asia, they would then have a chance to retaliate against us. I have hard time believing that any hacker would do this, but then, there are some truly crazy people out there. This could also explain why it took so long for them to send out the second alert, because the system was hacked or down and they needed to regain control or reset it. Also, if one of the employees didn’t send the message, they may not have even known about it for several minutes after.”
The third theory is (3) “The EAS was commandeered by a disgruntled employee.”
The poster says this theory is most likely in his opinion: Trump pisses an enormous amount of people off, he noted. For several more days this will be a national incident in the headlines.
The 4th theory is (4) “The monitoring system used to look for incoming threats malfunctioned.”
If the person’s expertise is not a lie, he would know the probability of this being the case: and they say this happens more often than one would think. The poster said they have detected false missiles before: apparently people have heard of the sensors being triggered by sunlight reflecting off of large pieces of metal.
The 5th theory is (5) “The “false alert” was staged.”
In my opinion, this is the most likely one. Trump is proving to the world that he is a figurehead for the complex of power that has run the US, UN, and allies for decades now, perhaps over half a century.
I think Trump is pissing everyone off and looking ridiculous to give the United Nations, European Union, opposing parties and all kinds of other entities appear legit and down to question the US government should an evil man occupy its figurehead office of president: but they are all on the same side, and in 2020 or 2024 a TRUE charismatic psychopath will fill the office.
The post concluded:
“Whatever really happened yesterday, I don’t think it was just an errant press of a button. But no matter what the actual cause was, this event was still a tragedy. Why? If there ever is a real threat and people get this message, they are now less likely to believe it, and that means they are less likely to seek shelter or prepare in anyway. Remember guys, don’t let this turn into a “the Gov cried wolf” story. If you ever get a notification like this, your first thought should be finding shelter, then questioning.
Good night everyone.”